Public policies

On 7 July, the Dutch government collapsed due to a disagreement between coalition parties over asylum policies. New national elections were held on 22 November 2023 and the process of forming a new government is currently underway. However, this is likely to take some time as at least four different parties are needed to form the new government. Until then, the caretaker government is not expected to make any major political decisions

The Dutch government increased the real estate transfer tax (RETT) from 8.0% to 10.4% as of 1 January 2023. The Dutch government decided that, as of 1 January 2025, fiscal investment institutions (Flls) may no longer invest in directly held Dutch real estate. For this reason, the Fund will be restructured into a tax transparent fund for mutual account (FMA, FGR in Dutch), which is not subject to corporate income tax. Now that this legislation has been adopted, there is also certainty on the conditional exemption from real estate transfer tax for shareholders with a so-called substantial interest (>=33⅓%). This exemption will apply to the investors of the Fund upon the restructuring that is planned for 31 December 2024.

Residential real estate policies

In December of last year, the Ministry of Housing and Spatial Planning provided more details on the Dutch Affordable Rent Act (Wet betaalbare huur). This law foresees a threshold in which rents up to approximately € 1,123 a month, calculated based on the Dutch 'WWS' points system, will fall within the regulated rental segment (current threshold is at € 879.66 a month). However, this regulation would only apply to new leases. In November 2023, the Raad van State (the independent advisory council of the government) published its advice on the implementation of the Dutch Affordable Rent Act. The council was critical of the new law and therefore advised Housing Minister Hugo de Jonge to "examine the proposal further with regards to the consequences for public housing policy as a whole" and not to submit it to the House of Representatives until several sections have been adjusted. In February 2024 an adjusted proposal, with input from both IVBN and NEPROM, has been submitted to the House of Representatives.

Due to challenging market circumstances – high interest rates, high construction costs and the nitrogen emissions crisis - it became increasingly difficult to build new homes in 2023. In order to increase new-build levels, the Dutch government has implemented the ‘Start Bouwimpuls’, a temporary subsidy to kick-start new-build projects that could not otherwise be realised due to the changing market conditions. In November, the government announced that 362 new-build projects, representing nearly 31,500 homes, will receive an average subsidy of € 10,000 per home.

Occupier market

In 2023, the owner-occupier market saw a turning point. Price developments for the owner-occupier market reached a low point in Q1 2023, followed by three consecutive quarter of price increases: 4.3% in Q2, 2.7% in Q3 and 2.6% in Q4. The average house price stood at € 434,000 at the end of 2023, which was 5.3% higher than in Q4 2022 (source: NVM). This was the result of the stabilisation of interest rates and significant wage increases in 2023, which led to improved affordability. Furthermore, consumers were more positive about the economic outlook and were therefore more willing to buy a new home. 

In the rental market, demand still outstripped supply in 2023 and as a result current vacancy rates are low. The latest data show that average residential market rents increased by 7.3% year-on-year in Q3 2023. Furthermore, as of July 2023, landlords were allowed to increase rents in the liberalised rental sector by a maximum of 4.1%. 

Investment market

The real estate investment market in the Netherlands and in most other countries came to a near standstill in the first half of 2023. The main reason for this was a rapid series of interest rate hikes by Central Banks to counter high inflation. As a result, initial yields increased and property values began to fall accordingly, leading to cautious market sentiment and a widening gap in pricing between sellers and (leveraged) buyers. In the Netherlands, additional challenges such as newly announced policies regarding restrictions on residential rental levels and tax measures for investors, also contributed to this cautious investment sentiment. Together with the increasingly gloomy economic outlook and geopolitical turmoil, this caused the total real estate investment volume to plummet to € 7.6 billion, from € 17.4 billion in the previous year. The drop was across the board, although the second half of 2023, when inflation declined, saw a recovery in volume, especially in the residential and healthcare markets.

The Dutch residential investment market saw € 2.6 billion in investments in 2023, compared with € 4.0 billion in 2022 (data JLL). The main reasons for the steep decline in investment volume are increased interest rates and uncertainty about housing market regulation. However, the (demographic) fundamentals on the Dutch residential market remain strong. International investors in particular are taking a wait-and-see approach and some investors, including Heimstaden and Capreit, are considering selling their portfolio altogether. New-build rental housing was also affected by rising interest rates and uncertainty about rental regulation. Investment volumes in this segment also dropped significantly, while the government's ambition is to add more affordable (rental) housing to the market.

The above-mentioned market circumstances also affected prime net initial yields, which increased from Q2 2022 but stabilised in the last quarter of 2023, according to JLL, and stood at 3.95% at the end of 2023.