Market outlook 2024-2026
In November 2023, Bouwinvest published its Dutch Market Outlook 2024-2026. In this document, you will find more detailed insight into macro trends, real estate market conditions and expectations for the years ahead.
Key trend | Impact real estate market | Portfolio management |
Demographic and social changes | ||
Effect of growth working from home (WFH) outweighs office employment growth | Total office employment grows slightly until 2031, but is outweighed by impact of WFH | Invest in sustainable and accessible assets at dynamic A locations in core regions |
Continuing urbanisation & polarisation | As a result, increased office vacancy mid-long term | Offer flexibility to tenants (lease term and flexible, shared and multi-use spaces) |
Especially at secondary/tertiary sites (lower demand and necessary investments riskier) | Invest in the most attractive big cities | |
Peaking interest rates & stubborn inflation | ||
Market in search of a new price equilibrium in uncertain times | Yield shift on the investment market | Targeted acquisitions with remaining commitments of > € 200 million within current fund strategy |
Core assets hardest hit by interest rate hikes, but best positioned regarding future demand | ||
Affordability and regulation | ||
Enforcement ‘C Label’ regulation | Increased sustainability requirements lead to tier 2 offices disappearing from stock | Focus on improvement of ESG |
Working from home ensures quality impulse offices | WFH offers companies the option of renting less m² at a better location at the same/lower rent and increases the appeal to staff | Increase the distinctiveness of assets through ESG investments, offering services, facilities and flexibility to tenants and branding |
Sustainability and responsibility | ||
Focus on sustainable & healthy office buildings surging | Increasing yield spread between green and brown assets | Raise the bar for ESG, including tenant health and well-being |
Occupiers will increasingly look at total cost of leasing (rent + energy + services) | Collect and monitor data for targeted ESG actions and asset analyses based on total occupier cost perspective | |
Occupiers and landlords need to adapt to higher standards for office locations and office quality to maintain appeal to staff | Promote and increase financial benefit of sustainable offices for users | |
Develop valuation of ESG |